Projecting Severe Cases of COVID-19
type: SoftwareApplication
description: This is an interactive, quantitative model that forecasts demand for COVID-19 related hospitalization based on county-level population characteristics, data from the literature on COVID-19, and data from online repositories. The model estimates a time series of demand for intensive care beds and acute care beds as well as the availability of those beds due to COVID-19 using the initial numbers, the doubling time, and the population-specific rates and then compares these to the numbers of relevant beds derived from data from the American Hospital Association. The tool is only designed to project hospitalizations when a small proportion of the overall population has been infected (<20%) and does not account for community immunity. The output of the model can be viewed in a graphic or in a table and is downloadable in a CSV format.
conforms to: Schema.org
conforms to: DCMI Metadata Terms
conforms to: PAV Ontology
conforms to: PROV Ontology
conforms to: MIDAS Metadata Vocabulary
conforms to: GeoNames Ontology
conforms to: HL7 FHIR
conforms to: SNOMED Clinical Terms
conforms to: Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes
conforms to: Open Biological and Biomedical Ontology
conforms to: MIDAS Catalog JSON-LD Schema
included in data catalog: MIDAS Catalog
  type: DataCatalog
  source: https://catalog.midasnetwork.us/
about: population
about: Viruses
about: COVID-19
about: disease
about: hospital stay dataset
about: infectious disease
about: health system capacity
about: modeling purpose
about: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
about: software
about: vaccine-preventable Disease
about: incident hospitalization count
about: host organism
about: Homo sapiens
about: viral Infectious disease
about: modeling
about: Web Application
about: viral respiratory tract infection
about: forecasting
about: Population count
about: pathogen
subject: viral Infectious disease
subject: host organism
subject: modeling
subject: Population count
subject: software
subject: disease
subject: Viruses
subject: viral respiratory tract infection
subject: pathogen
subject: Homo sapiens
subject: vaccine-preventable Disease
subject: COVID-19
subject: hospital stay dataset
subject: Web Application
subject: infectious disease
subject: incident hospitalization count
subject: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
subject: forecasting
subject: health system capacity
subject: population
subject: modeling purpose
access URL: https://surfcovid19.shinyapps.io/pop_prod/
landing page: https://surfcovid19.shinyapps.io/pop_prod/
endpoint URL: https://surfcovid19.shinyapps.io/pop_prod/

Schema.org
type: Standard
description: Schema.org vocabulary for structured data on the web
subject: sciences
subject: web
type: generic

DCMI Metadata Terms
type: Standard
description: Dublin Core Metadata Initiative Terms - refined elements for precise resource description
subject: metadata
subject: resource description
subject: interoperability
subject: digital libraries
type: metadata schema

PAV Ontology
type: Standard
description: Provenance, Authoring and Versioning ontology for metadata about web resources
subject: provenance
subject: versioning
subject: authoring
subject: metadata
type: metadata schema

PROV Ontology
type: Standard
description: W3C Provenance Ontology for describing provenance information
subject: sciences
subject: epidemiology
type: generic

MIDAS Metadata Vocabulary
type: Standard
description: Custom MIDAS vocabulary for epidemiological data and modeling
subject: epidemiology
subject: public health
subject: infectious diseases
type: domain-specific

GeoNames Ontology
type: Standard
description: GeoNames geographical database ontology
subject: geography
subject: spatial data
type: domain-specific

HL7 FHIR
type: Standard
description: Health Level 7 Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources
subject: healthcare
subject: medical informatics
type: domain-specific

SNOMED Clinical Terms
type: Standard
description: Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms
subject: healthcare
subject: clinical terminology
type: domain-specific

Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes
type: Standard
description: LOINC database for laboratory and clinical observations
subject: healthcare
subject: laboratory
subject: clinical
type: domain-specific

Open Biological and Biomedical Ontology
type: Standard
description: OBO Foundry ontologies for life sciences and biomedical research
subject: life sciences
subject: biomedical
subject: epidemiology
type: domain-specific

MIDAS Catalog JSON-LD Schema
type: Standard
description: JSON Schema (Draft 2020-12) defining the structure of MIDAS Catalog JSON-LD metadata records
subject: epidemiology
subject: metadata
subject: data validation
type: metadata schema

population
type: DefinedTerm
alternate name: Population

Viruses
type: DefinedTerm
description: Minute infectious agents whose genomes are composed of DNA or RNA, but not both. They are characterized by a lack of independent metabolism and the inability to replicate outside living host cells.
alternate name: Viruses

COVID-19
type: DefinedTerm
description: A Coronavirus infection that is characterized by fever, cough and shortness of breath and that has_material_basis_in SARS-CoV-2.
alternate name: COVID-19

disease
type: DefinedTerm
description: A disease is a disposition (i) to undergo pathological processes that (ii) exists in an organism because of one or more disorders in that organism.
alternate name: Disease

hospital stay dataset
type: DefinedTerm
description: a dataset that is about two or more hospital stays involving two or more patients.
alternate name: Hospitalization

United States
type: GeoShape
address country: US

infectious disease
type: DefinedTerm
description: A disease whose physical basis is an infectious disorder
alternate name: Infectious Disease

health system capacity
type: DefinedTerm
description: Information about capacity, including hospital beds, PPE supplies, nursing home capacity, testing sites, therapeutics, etc.
alternate name: Health System Capacity

modeling purpose
type: DefinedTerm
description: The goal or purpose of a modeling study.
alternate name: Modeling Purpose

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
type: DefinedTerm
description: A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis.
alternate name: SARS-CoV2

software
type: DefinedTerm
description: Software is a plan specification composed of a series of instructions that can be interpreted by or directly executed by a processing unit.
alternate name: Software

vaccine-preventable Disease
type: DefinedTerm
description: Vaccine preventable diseases are those infectious diseases that can be prevented by vaccination
alternate name: Vaccine-Preventable Disease

incident hospitalization count
type: DefinedTerm
description: A count of hospital stays in a population that is the number of hospital stays that occurred during a proper part of a reference temporal interval.
alternate name: Incident Hospitalization

host organism
type: DefinedTerm
description: An organism of a particular biological taxon that is the site of reproduction of an organism of a different taxon.
alternate name: Host

Homo sapiens
type: DefinedTerm
description: Members of the species Homo sapiens.
alternate name: Homo sapiens

viral Infectious disease
type: DefinedTerm
description: Any disease caused by a virus.
alternate name: Viruses Infection

modeling
type: DefinedTerm
description: Descriptors of the behavior of an outbreak
alternate name: Modeling

Web Application
type: DefinedTerm
description: A computer application that requires with an active internet connection and that uses HTTP as its primary communications protocol.
alternate name: Web Application

viral respiratory tract infection
type: DefinedTerm
description: A respiratory tract infection caused by a virus. Viruses represent the most common causes of upper and lower respiratory tract infections and include rhinoviruses, influenza viruses, parainfluenza viruses, and respiratory syncytial virus.
alternate name: Viral Respiratory Tract Infection

forecasting
type: DefinedTerm
description: Projections of outbreak behavior into some future time, determined relative to a defined starting point. Might include retrospective projects or projections for current activitiy (known as "now-casting").
alternate name: Forecasting

Population count
type: DefinedTerm
description: A count of simulated or physical individuals in a population.
alternate name: Population Count

pathogen
type: DefinedTerm
description: An organism of a particular biological taxon that is the bearer of an infectious dispositions towards an organism of a different particular biological taxon.
alternate name: Pathogen

English
type: Language

Peter Glynn
type: Person
type: Agent

Alejandro Martinez
type: Person
type: Agent

Joshua Salomon
type: Person
type: Agent

Nigam Shah
type: Person
type: Agent

Arnold Milstein
type: Person
type: Agent

Kevin Schulman
type: Person
type: Agent

David Scheinker
type: Person
type: Agent

Angela Gu
type: Person
type: Agent

Johannes Opsahl Ferstad
type: Person
type: Agent

Raymond Ye Lee
type: Person
type: Agent

Andy Shin
type: Person
type: Agent

Isha Thapa
type: Person
type: Agent

datePublished
date: 2026-06-28

datePublished
date: 2021-08-26

Apache 2.0
type: CreativeWork

National Institute of General Medical Sciences
type: Organization

MIDAS COORDINATION CENTER
type: Organization
source: https://midasnetwork.us/
location: PostalAddress
  street address: 5607 Baum Blvd
  address locality: Pittsburgh
  address region: PA
  address country: United States of America
  postal code: 15206

Place
geo: United States
feature code: PCLI

County
type: Place

State
type: Place

A model to forecast regional demand for COVID-19 related hospital beds
type: CreativeWork
description: The paper presents the model created for predicting COVID-19 hospitalization rates and the demands for beds in hospitals.
source: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044842
license: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
type: Entity
property value: DOI
license:
  name: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
type: Agent
license:
  name: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
type: CreativeWork

CSV
type: DefinedTerm
description: Comma-separated values: a delimited text file format for tabular data.
in defined term set: https://www.iana.org/assignments/media-types/

about-property-structure
type: PropertyValue
description: The 'about' property contains mixed types: DefinedTerm objects represent subject matter/topics, while Place objects represent geographical scope or applicability

Place
geo: United States
feature code: PCLI